Tampa just posted the sharpest annual price drop in the 20-city index, so the Florida housing market reality check starts there, not on TikTok. Tampa’s Case-Shiller line sits 4.1% lower than last year, the steepest among tracked metros, which matches what advisor updates and local coverage show this week per Advisor Perspectives.
Signals vs. noise across Florida.
Price headlines say “drop” while turnover hits new lows. Tampa Bay just logged the lowest share of homes changing hands in decades, according to today’s local brief from Axios.
Inventory sends mixed messages. Florida and Texas host the most sellers relative to buyers, which tilts leverage toward the patient shopper, per Redfin. If you want a weekly script that explains that imbalance in plain English, the Hot Take Engine can help you draft it.
Supply isn’t one-directional. After two years of swelling listings, parts of Florida just saw their first inventory dips, which confuses clients who only hear “glut,” per advisory notes at James Moore. A quick “up from spring, down from October” line helps.
Rates help and hurt at once. The 30-year average sits near 6.23% as of November 26, which boosts applications at the margin, per Freddie Mac. Use that number in buyer talks this week.
Reading the tape on prices.
Case-Shiller matters because it is slow and broad. Tampa’s index level fell again in September, continuing a clear slide from summer, per the St. Louis Fed’s Tampa series at FRED. Use a chart cutout in listing consults to set expectations.
National growth is fading. The September Case-Shiller national read shows weaker gains and broad monthly declines before seasonal adjustment, with Tampa among the largest pullbacks, per Wall Street Journal. That framing supports “negotiate, do not lowball.”
Media maps echo the theme. Tampa led annual declines among major metros into late October, with Miami also slipping, per Newsweek. Pair that with your MLS comps to avoid cherry-picking.
Leverage without drama.
Lead with buyers versus sellers counts. Florida metros show the biggest gaps, which increases negotiation risk for unprepared sellers, per Redfin’s buyer–seller balance. Your script can say, “We price to today, not last spring.”
Anchor to weekly indicators. MBA’s latest update shows applications improving around the holidays as rates ease, which creates pockets of activity, per the MBA research feed. You can turn that into a short Monday video.
Refresh your old pages. Much of Florida content still reads like 2021. Update posts to reflect insurance, HOA assessments and storm risk. Teams using Content Cleaning report better alignment with today’s questions.
Weekly scripts that travel well.
Say what the number means, not just the number. “Tampa prices are down four percent year over year, which trims about $160 per month on a $400,000 loan at today’s rate,” using the current PMMS rate from Freddie Mac. Run the math once, then reuse.
Set expectations on inventory. “Listings are still higher than a year ago, but some areas dipped from October,” as noted by James Moore. That line defuses “crash” claims and “all-clear” hype.
Close with local proof. “Cape Coral and other Florida markets rank among the coolest by price trend right now,” per recent trend data at Realtor.com. Tie that to your MLS sheet.
Five steady moves for calmer deals.
- Pick one weekly metric and explain it for your ZIP. Start with Tampa’s Case-Shiller line via FRED, then map to payment.
- Record a 45-second Reel with a single takeaway. The Hot Take Engine builds a script you can copy into Reels, email and listing decks.
- Refresh three old pages each week. Swap 2021 boom claims for today’s rate and insurance facts using Content Cleaning.
- Add one buyer and one seller line to every CMA. Use the buyer–seller gap from Redfin as context, not ammo.
- Keep sentences tight and plain. Your audience is busy and so are assistants. See our style guardrails and reach out to get a quick review.
We’ve seen this approach work in similar markets. Curious how this could work for you? Contact Us.
A practical next step for Florida: Consider the Hot Take Engine for weekly, numbers-backed scripts. Then run Content Cleaning on your 2021–2023 pages. If you want a walkthrough, reach out today.
